A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper presents a regime-switching model of the yield curve with two states. One is a normal state, the other is a zero-bound state that represents the case when the monetary policy target rate is at its zero lower bound for a prolonged period. The model delivers estimates of the time-varying probability of exiting the zero-bound state, and it outperforms standard threeand four-factor term structure models as well as a shadowrate model at matching short-rate expectations and the compression in yield volatility near the zero lower bound. JEL Classification: G12, E43, E52, E58
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